Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development: Shaping the Future of Your Enterprise

Is my enterprise really prepared for future business? What can I do to become more competitive? Ulf Pillkahn′s book is directed at all of those seeking answers to these questions: executive sin strategic positions, business analysts, consultants, trend scouts, marketing and product managers and research engineers.

The book presents the two most powerful tools for future planning: environmental analysis, based on the use of trends, as well as the development of vision of the future through the use of scenarios. While scenarios are generally regarded as a classical management tool, it is expected that the importance of trends will gain tremendously in the coming years. Pillkahn demonstrates how to build robust strategies by aligning the results of environmental and enterprise scenarios, thereby offering entirely new insights.

"How to Develop and Use trends and Scenarios" convincingly illustrates why efficient observation of the environment of an enterprise is an absolutely essential factor for strategy development, and why strategy development only works if it it is institutionalized as a permanent enterprise process. It also addresses the issue of what information is needed to keep both processes running. The book further describes how trends can be categorized, and offers advice on how to glean the essential information from the vast variety of trends. information is provided on how scenarios are used as a holistic instrument for creating visions and pictures of the future, and how the results of trend research and scenario techniques find their way into entrepreneurial strategy development. An optimized strategy development process is also outlined. Practical examples and real–life pictures of the future round off Pillkahn′s insightful discussion of future business planning.

Introduction 13

CHAPTER 1 Venturing a Look into the Future

Moving from the Past into the Future via the Present

1.1 Reflections on the Future 23

1.2 Changes in Our Environment 41

1.3 Enterprise Development 45

1.4 Present and Future Challenges 50

1.5 Enterprise Intelligence Test 72

CHAPTER 2 Detection

Detecting and Recording Changes in the Enterprise Environment

2.1 A Plea for Foresight and Prior Action 81

2.2 The Enterprise Environment 82

2.3 Information as a Basis for Decision Making 86

2.4 How We Can Learn to Understand Our Environment 95

2.5 The Future of Television (I) 104

CHAPTER 3 Reflection

Sorting and Structuring Information

3.1 Changes in the Environment 115

3.2 Stability Paradigms and Assumptions 120

3.3 Changes Trends 122

3.4 Uncertainty 142

3.5 Contradictions 142

3.6 Indeterminate Elements Chaos and Wildcards 143

3.7 From Hypothesis to Future Element 144

3.8 The Future of Television (II) 147

CHAPTER 4 Understanding

Anticipating the Future

4.1 Memories of the Future 155

4.2 The Possibilities and Limits of Foresight 158

4.3 Origins and Development of Foresight 162

4.4 Pictures of the Future 174

4.5 Demarcation and Focus 177

4.6 Selecting Future Elements 179

4.7 The Actual Look into the Future 179

4.7.1 Principles and Methods of Analyzing the Future 181

4.7.2 Methods of Analyzing the Present 194

4.7.3 Methods of Opinion Formation and Decision Making 194

4.7.4 Selection of Foresight Methods ( Looking into the Future ) 198

4.7.5 Developing Hypotheses 198

4.8 Development of Scenario Frameworks and Scenarios 200

4.9 Creating Pictures of the Future 206

4.10 Evaluation of Scenarios 208

4.11 Pictures of the Future 209

4.12 The Future of Television (III) 211

4.13 Lessons Learned 227

CHAPTER 5 Planning

Seizing Opportunities and Avoiding Hazards

5.1 Planning for the Future: An Insurance Policy 233

5.2 Strategy Review 234

5.3 Developing Strategies in Turbulent Environments 240

5.4 Enterprise Analysis 243

5.5 Strategy Synthesis 253

5.5.1 Basic Understanding of Strategy and Strategic Goals 254

5.5.2 Strategic Options and Strategic Fit 257

5.5.3 Developing Enterprise Scenarios 259

5.5.4 Developing Strategic Options 260

5.5.5 Strategic Fit 262

5.5.6 Robust Strategies 263

5.6 Strategic Decisions 265

5.7 Examining the Future in the Context of Strategy Development 266

5.8 The Future of Television (IV) 272

CHAPTER 6 Implementation

Managing Change

6.1 The Dimensions of Change 287

6.2 The Logic of Change 289

6.3 The Reality of Change in Enterprises 290

6.4 Elements of Change 294

6.4.1 The First S: Strategy 297

6.4.2 The Second S: Structures 298

6.4.3 The Third S: Systems 301

6.4.4 The Fourth S: Style 305

6.4.5 The Fifth S: Staff 307

6.4.6 The Sixth S: Skills 309

6.4.7 The Seventh S: Shared Values Visions 310

6.4.8 F Foresight 316

6.4.9 E Entrepreneurship 317

6.4.10 I Innovation Management versus Innovation 317

6.5 Orientation in the Process of Change 321

6.6 Including the Results of Analysis 325

6.7 Reflection, reflection, reflection 326

6.8 The Future of Television (V) 327

CHAPTER 7 Learning

Applications and Examples

7.1 Dealing with Uncertainty in Practice 335

7.2 The Future of Petroleum Introduction 335

7.3 The Future of Petroleum An Information Base 338

7.4 Compression and Operation 358

7.5 Generating Environment Scenarios 364

7.5.1 Scenario 1: Empty 368

7.5.2 Scenario 2: Transition 371

7.5.3 Scenario 3: Fight 374

7.5.4 Scenario 4: Independence 377

7.6 Generating Enterprise Scenarios 381

7.6.1 Scenario 1: Cautious Innovation 384

7.6.2 Scenario 2: No Experiments 386

7.6.3 Scenario 3: No Plan 387

7.6.4 Scenario 4: Aggressive 389

7.7 Strategic Implications 392

7.8 Example Summary 394

CHAPTER 8 Homework 397

What You Should Do

CHAPTER 9 Appendix I 403

100 Sources of Information

CHAPTER 10 Appendix II

Short Profiles of Selected Methods

10.1 Macro Environment Analysis 419

10.1.1 Environment Analysis (STEEPV) 419

10.1.2 Trend Analysis 420

10.1.3 Issue Management 421

10.2 Micro Environment Analysis 422

10.2.1 Stakeholder Analysis 422

10.2.2 Customer Profile Analysis 423

10.2.3 Industry and Market Analysis 424

10.3 Enterprise Analysis 426

10.3.1 The 7S Model .426

10.3.2 Value–chain Analysis 427

10.3.3 Benchmarking 428

10.4 Foresight 429

10.4.1 Morphological Analysis 429

10.4.2 Forecast 430

10.4.3 Weak–signal Analysis 431

10.5 Strategic Analysis 431

10.5.1 BCG Matrix 431

10.5.2 SWOT Analysis 433

10.5.3 Ansoff Matrix 434

10.6 Change Management 435

10.6.1 Eight–phase Model According to Kotter 435

10.6.2 Balanced Scorecard 436

References 437

Index 450

ULF PILLKAHN
is Strategy Consultant at Siemens AG in Munich. He is proprietor of a number of patents and inventions. For a few years now he is successfully dealing with innovation management, especially with I and C technologies, strategy development and futurology.