Systemic Risk Tomography: Signals, Measurement and Transmission Channels

In April 2010 Europe was shocked by the Greek financial turmoil. At that time, the global financial crisis, which started in the summer of 2007 and reached systemic dimensions in September 2008 with the Lehman Brothers’ crash, took a new course. An adverse feedback loop between sovereign and bank risks reflected into bubble-like spreads, as if financial markets had received a wake-up call concerning the disregarded structural vulnerability of economies at risk. These events inspired the SYRTO project to “think and rethink” the economic and financial system and to conceive it as an “ensemble” of Sovereigns and Banks with other Financial Intermediaries and Corporations. Systemic Risk Tomography: Signals, Measurement and Transmission Channels proposes a novel way to explore the financial system by sectioning each part of it and analyzing all relevant inter-relationships. The financial system is inspected as a biological entity to identify the main risk signals and to provide the correct measures of prevention and intervention.

Explores the economic and financial system of Sovereigns, Banks, other Financial Intermediaries, and CorporationsPresents the financial system as a biological entity to be explored in order to identify the main risk signals and provide the right measures of prevention and interventionsOffers a new, systemic-based approach to construct a hierarchical, internally coherent framework to be used in developing an effective early warning system

Part 1. Risk Connections and Systemic Risk Indicators 1. Systemic Risk via Dynamic Correlations by Petros Dellaportas, Anastasios Plataniotis and Michalis K. Titsias  2. Systemic Risk and Financial Interconnectedness: Network Measures and the Impact of the Indirect Effect by Monica Billio, Michele Costola, Roberto Panzica and Loriana Pelizzon 3. Are Critical Slowing Down Indicators Useful to Detect Financial Crises? By Hayette Gatfaoui, Isabelle Nagot and Philippe De Peretti 4. Onset of Financial Instability Studied via Agent-based Models by Yi-Fang LIU, Jørgen Vitting-Andersen and Philippe De Peretti

Part 2. Early Warning System for Systemic Risk(s) 5. Score-driven Systemic Risk Signaling for European Sovereign Bond Yields and CDS Spreads by Rutger-Jan Lange, André Lucas and Arjen Siegmann 6. Model-based Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Decomposition for Europe and the United States by Siem Jan Koopman, Rutger Lit and André Lucas 7. Danger Zones for the Financial System by Paolo Manasse, Roberto Savona and Marika Vezzoli 8. Risk Monitoring Systems in Real-time Based on Dynamic Factor Models by Marcella Lucchetta Part 3. Policy Implications 9. Policy Lessons from Systemic Risk Modeling and Measurement by Arjen Siegmann