The Climate Modelling Primer

Climate modelling affects everyone, everywhere. Today, we all need to know whether and how climate models work; how they have evolved; and how well they are understood by those who build them, the funders who support them, the policy analysts who use them and the communicators who explain their outputs. The Climate Modelling Primer is a completely revised guide to the rules and riddles of climate modelling for those who need to know how modern models work and what they can deliver. The Climate Modelling Primer, Fourth Edition engages readers in an interactive experience: making use of internet resources via QR codes that link to talks, simulations, results and assessments. Using these, readers can: • ‘Speed Date’ real climate models • Solve four CSI (climate simulation intrigues) mysteries in every chapter • Meet fascinating climate modellers who have shaped this science • Attempt to ‘validate’ many climate model simulations • Probe significant aspects of important climate modelling papers • Explore concepts with downloadable, easy–to–use climate models • Communicate climate modelling ideas • Draw and analyse feedbacks and ‘wiring’ diagrams. This book encompasses the history of climate modelling and its future; how climate models are used in simulations of past, future and current climates at many scales; the wide range of communication forms employed to share results from climate model simulations with different audiences; the variety of confidence and uncertainty measures associated with climate model outputs and how to interpret them; and the ways in which results from climate models affect twenty–first century policy, laws, international trade and human development. This book’s audience includes all those who wish to understand twenty–first century climate modelling.

Preface vii Acknowledgements xv About the companion website xvi 1 Why Model Climate? 3 2 The Evolution of Climate Models 69 3 Energy Balance Models 139 4 Intermediate Complexity Models 199 5 Coupled Climate System Models 281 6 Through the Looking Glass 371 Collected endnotes 393 Hints and solutions 401 List of abbreviations 402 List of symbols 406 Bibliography 407 Index 431

Kendal McGuffie , University of Technology Sydney, Australia Ann Henderson–Sellers , Macquarie University, Australia