Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets

"Michael Covel′s Trend Following: Essential."
Ed Seykota, profiled in Market Wizards

"Covel′s Trend Following is the must–read for all investors. Why? Because every investor needs a trend to make money, and when the trend shifts investors need to follow it. Read it."
Wesley R. Gray, PhD, CEO, Alpha Architect, and author of Quantitative Momentum

"While enjoying this book, be sure to look up another resource from Covel his remarkable podcast. Michael has a gift for interviewing, and it is fun and educational to follow him into the offices of many serious traders."
Dr. Alexander Elder, Author, The New Trading for a Living

"Covel′s Trend Following has become an investment classic and a must read for anyone who wants to better understand how to profit from the financial markets using systematic and unbiased approaches."
Cullen Roche, Founder, Orcam Financial Group, LLC

"Trend following: If it is going up, buy it. If it is going down, sell it. How could something seemingly so simple be so controversial? The answer lies in the definitions: What does going up mean? Going down? What′s a trend? What′s a turn? These questions have a wide variety of answers, largely dependent on the goals and risk/reward preferences of the answerer. In Trend Following Mr. Covel covers the waterfront. You′ll find many definitions of trend following here, each with its advocates. You will be able to compare and contrast approaches and perhaps find one that suits you. At the very least, after reading this book you′ll have the territory mapped and understand what trend following has to offer."
John Bollinger, Founder, www.BollingerBands.com

"While financial television obsessively tracks every tick in the stock market, Michael Covel′s Trend Following continues to draw attention to a strategy, diversified trend following, that generates unique returns for disciplined investors with a long–run time horizon."
Tadas Viskanta, Founder and Editor, Abnormal Returns; Author, Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investment Blogosphere

Go beyond this fifth edition and join a free, interactive e–mail course to take your knowledge of Trend Following to the next level. A bonus for all readers: www.trendfollowing.com/freecourse.

Foreword

Preface

Section I: Trend Following Principles

Chapter 1: Trend Following

Speculation

Winning v. Losing

Investor v. Trader

Fundamental v. Technical

Discretionary v. Systematic

Hiding in Plain Sight

Change Is Life

Follow the Trend to the End When It Bends

Surf the Waves

Chapter 2: Trend Followers

David Harding

Bill Dunn

John W. Henry

Ed Seykota

Keith Campbell

Jerry Parker

Salem Abraham

Richard Dennis

Richard Donchian

Jesse Livermore

Dickson Watts

Chapter 3: Performance Data

Absolute Returns

Volatility v. Risk

Drawdowns

Correlation

Zero–Sum

George Soros

Berkshire Hathaway

Chapter 4: Big Events, Crashes and Panics

Great Recession

Dot–com Bubble

Long–Term Capital Management

Asian Contagion

Barings Bank

Metallgesellschaft

Black Monday

Chapter 5: Thinking Outside the Box

Baseball

Billy Beane

Bill James

Stats Take Over

Chapter 6: Human Behavior

Prospect Theory

Emotional Intelligence

Neuro–Linguistic Programming

Trading Tribe

Curiosity Not PhDs

Commitment

Chapter 7: Decision–Making

Occam s Razor

Fast and Frugal Decision–Making

Innovator s Dilemma

Process v. Outcome v. Gut

Chapter 8: The Scientific Method

Richard Feynman

Critical Thinking

Linear v. Nonlinear

Compounding

Chapter 9: Holy Grails

Buy and Hope

Warren Buffett

Losers Average Losers

Avoiding Stupidity

Chapter 10: Trading Systems

Risk, Reward & Uncertainty

Five Questions

Your Trading System

Frequently Asked Questions

Chapter 11: The Game

Acceptance

Don t Blame Me

Decrease Leverage Decrease Return

Fortune Favors the Bold

Section II: Trend Following Interviews

Chapter 12: Ed Seykota

Chapter 13: Martin Lueck

Chapter 14: Jean–Philippe Bouchaud

Chapter 15: Ewan Kirk

Chapter 16: Alex Greyserman

Chapter 17: Campbell Harvey

Chapter 18: Lasse Pedersen

Section III: Trend Following Research

Chapter 19: A Multicentennial View of Trend Following

Chapter 20: Two Centuries of Trend Following

Chapter 21: Trend Following: Quality, Not Quantity

Chapter 22: Evaluating Trading Strategies

Chapter 23: Black Box Trend Following Lifting the Veil

Chapter 24: Risk Management

Chapter 25: How to Grab a Bargain Trading Futures Maybe

Chapter 26: Why Tactical Macro Investing Still Makes Sense

Chapter 27: Carry and Trend in Lots of Places

Chapter 28: The Great Hypocrisy

Chapter 29: Who Are You?

Epilogue

Trend Following Podcast Episodes

Notes

Bibliography

Acknowledgments

About the Author

Index

Michael W. Covel searches. He digs. He goes behind the curtain to reveal a state of mind the system doesn′t want you in.

Michael teaches beginners to seasoned pros how to generate profits with straightforward and repeatable rules. He is best known for popularizing the counterintuitive and controversial trading strategy, trend following. His perspectives have garnered international acclaim and have earned him invitations with a host of organizations: China Asset Management, GIC Private Limited (Singapore), BM&F Bovespa, the Managed Funds Association, Bank of China Investment Management, the Market Technicians Association, and multiple hedge funds and mutual funds. He also has the distinction of having interviewed five Nobel Prize winners, including Daniel Kahneman and Harry Markowitz, on his Trend Following podcast which now exceeds 500 episodes and 5 million listens.

Michael′s consulting clients include individual traders, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional investors in more than 70 countries. He splits his time between the United States and Asia.

www.trendfollowing.com

To book Michael Covel for a speaking engagement, visit www.trendfollowing.com/contact