Trading with Intermarket Analysis: A Visual Approach to Beating the Financial Markets Using Exchange–Traded Funds

Praise for Trading with Intermarket Analysis

"John Murphy makes it absolutely clear that all markets are interrelated. It would be silly to trade stocks without keeping an eye on interest rates, currencies, and gold. In this valuable new book, the master of technical analysis teaches all of us how to monitor and profit from intermarket relationships."
Dr. ALEXANDER ELDER, author of The New Trading for a Living, www.elder.com

"Murphy′s basic premise is that a trader′s analysis needs to extend beyond the market itself to also encompass interrelationships with other markets a broader perspective that is essential not only in understanding the big picture but also in providing valuable early warning signs through lead–lag relationships. The best part of Trading with Intermarket Analysis is that these critical market interactions are vividly illustrated with more than 150 color charts, providing valuable food for thought not only for chartists but also fundamentalists, as an understanding of intermarket connections is essential for all traders. One lesson I have learned from interviewing market wizards is that intermarket price action provides essential trading clues. In this context, Murphy′s book offers traders a valuable resource and idea repository."
JACK SCHWAGER, author of Market Wizards and the Schwager on Futures book series

"In today′s lightning–fast, interconnected global markets, savvy traders capitalize and profit on intermarket movements. Murphy′s new book shows traders how to read the charts and understand intermarket dynamics in an easy–to–understand visual fashion. Learn how to utilize ETFs to trade and profit off these key market drivers. Long a friend to the TraderPlanet.com community, Murphy once again shines with his latest must–read book for all traders."
LANE J. MENDELSOHN, founder, TraderPlanet.com

Introduction xi

PART I THE OLD NORMAL 1

CHAPTER 1 Intermarket Analysis: The Study of Relationships 3

CHAPTER 2 Review of the Old Normal 15

CHAPTER 3 The 1997 1998 Asian Currency Crisis 25

PART II THE 2000 AND 2007 TOPS 35

CHAPTER 4 Intermarket Events Surrounding the 2000 Top 37

CHAPTER 5 The 2002 Falling Dollar Boosts Commodities 47

CHAPTER 6 Asset Allocation Rotations Leading to the 2007 Top 59

CHAPTER 7 Visual Analysis of the 2007 Market Top 73

PART III THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND ETFS 89

CHAPTER 8 Intermarket Analysis and the Business Cycle 91

CHAPTER 9 The Impact of the Business Cycle on Market Sectors 105

CHAPTER 10 Exchange–Traded Funds 123

PART IV THE NEW NORMAL 129

CHAPTER 11 The Dollar and Commodities Trend in Opposite Directions 131

CHAPTER 12 Stocks and Commodities Become Highly Correlated 145

CHAPTER 13 Stocks and the Dollar 161

CHAPTER 14 The Link between Bonds and Stocks 179

CHAPTER 15 The Link between Bonds and Commodities 197

Conclusion: It s All about Relationships 215

About the Author 227

Index 229

John J. Murphy is a former technical analyst for CNBC and has over forty years of market experience. He is senior writer for StockCharts.com, a website that specializes in financial charts and technical analysis education. Murphy has appeared on Bloomberg TV, CNN, FOX, and the Nightly Business Report, and has been widely quoted in several other media outlets. In 1992, he was given the first award for outstanding contribution to global technical analysis by the International Federation of Technical Analysts, and received a lifetime achievement award from the same organization in 2014. He is a recipient of the Market Technicians Annual Award. In addition to two previous books on intermarket analysis, he also authored two editions of The Visual Investor, all of which are published by Wiley. He also authored Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. Murphy has a bachelor of arts in economics and a master of business administration from Fordham University. He currently lives in New Jersey.