The Evolution of Meteorology: A Look into the Past, Present, and Future of Weather Forecasting

The essential guide to the history, current trends, and the future of meteorology

This enlightening text offers a comprehensive review of the evolution of the field of meteorology, from its infancy in 3000 BC, through the birth of fresh ideas and the actual naming of the field as a science, to the technology boom, to today. The Evolution of Meteorology reveals the full story from where meteorology was then to where it is now, where the field is heading, and what needs to be done to get the field to levels never before imagined. The authors two noted experts in the field include information on forecasting technologies, organizations, governmental agencies, and world cooperative projects and legislation, along with data on climate change theories and understanding, as well as extreme weather statistics and histories.

The authors explore the ancient history of the first attempts to understand and predict weather and examine the influence of the very early birth of television, computers, and technologies that are useful to meteorology. This modern–day examination of meteorology is filled with compelling research, statistics, future paths, ideas, and suggestions. This vital resource:

Examines current information on climate change and recent extreme weather events Starts with the Ancient Babylonians and ends with the largest global agreement of any kind with the Paris Agreement Includes current information on the most authoritative research in the field of meteorology Offers scientific views on the future direction of the field of meteorology

This comprehensive text offers a guide to the history of the study of meteorology and contains data on the latest global research and scientific knowledge in the field in order to bring awareness to the overall path of meteorology and where we may end up.

About the Authors xiii

Preface xv

Acknowledgments xvii

Section I Building Blocks of Meteorology (3000 bc ad 1950) 1

1 Ancient Civilizations, Philosophical Theories, and Folklore (3000 bc ad 1400) 3
Kevin Anthony Teague

1.1 Ancient Babylonians 3

1.2 Ancient Chinese 4

1.3 Aristotle and Meteorologica 4

1.4 Theophrastus and the Book of Signs 5

1.5 Ibn Wahshiyya and Nabataean Agriculture 6

1.6 William of Ockham and Nominalism 6

1.7 Religion, Folklore, and Animals 7

2 Inventions of Weather Instruments (1400 1800) 11
Nicole Gallicchio

2.1 Rain Gauge 11

2.2 Hygrometer 12

2.3 Thermometer 13

2.4 Barometer 15

2.5 Anemometer 16

3 The Birth of Modern Meteorology (1800 1950) 19
Kevin Anthony Teague and Nicole Gallicchio

3.1 Telegraph 19

3.2 Fitzroy 20

3.3 Hugo Hildebrand Hildebrandsson 20

3.4 Weather Balloons/Radiosondes 20

3.5 Birth of Governmental Weather Departments 22

3.6 Numerical Weather Prediction 25

3.7 Weather Broadcasting 26

3.8 Forecasting for WWII 26

3.9 Extreme Weather Forecasting: Nowcasting 27

Section II The Early Television, Computer, Satellite, and Radar Era (1950 1980) 31

4 Television and the First Computerized Advancements 33
Kevin Anthony Teague

4.1 Television in the Household 33

4.2 Television Weather Forecasting of the 1950s 33

4.3 Television Weather Forecasting of the 1960s and 1970s 34

4.4 The Beginning of Computers and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) 35

4.5 Computers and NWP in the Met Office 37

4.6 Computers and NWP Worldwide 37

4.7 The 1970s and Its Lasting Influences on Forecasting 39

5 Radar and Satellite History 43
Nicole Gallicchio

5.1 Invention of the Radar 43

5.2 Development of Weather Radar 44

5.3 Invention of the Satellite 46

5.4 Remote Sensing 46

5.5 Development of Weather Satellites 47

Section III Modern ]Day Technologies, Advancements, and Social Media Impacts (1980 2013) 51

6 Personal Technology Boom 53
Nicole Gallicchio

6.1 Television Networks 53

6.2 Personal Computers 55

6.3 The Internet and Meteorology 56

6.4 Cellphones and Social Media 56

6.5 Movies 58

7 Covering Major Storms 61
Nicole Gallicchio

7.1 The Great Storm of 1987 61

7.2 Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones 63

7.3 Tornadoes 66

7.4 Floods, Droughts, and Wildfires 68

7.5 Storm Chasing 70

7.6 Media

8 The Rise of Modern Computer Models 75
Kevin Anthony Teague

8.1 European Center for Medium ]Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) 75

8.2 Main US Models 78

8.3 Specific Use Forecasting Models 79

8.4 Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) 79

8.5 Global Data ]Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) 80

8.6 Main Model Biases and Various Characteristics 80

9 Advancements within the Nationalized Governmental Weather Departments 87
Kevin Anthony Teague

9.1 The National Weather Service 87

9.2 The Met Office 91

9.3 Advancements across the World 93

9.4 Radar Development 96

9.5 New Satellite Developments 100

10 Meteorological Agencies at the Global and Private Level 107
Kevin Anthony Teague

10.1 World Government Agencies 107

10.2 Operations of World Organizations 110

10.3 Global Discussions 110

10.4 What a Private ]Sector Weather Business Entails 111

10.5 Government vs. Private Sector 112

10.6 The Lesser ]Known Services of the Private Sector 115

Section IV Current and Future Ideologies of Climate Change and Meteorological Processes 121

11 Climate Change 123
Nicole Gallicchio

11.1 Climate Discussions 123

11.2 Earth s Lifetime Fluctuations 125

11.3 Past Climate Data 127

11.4 Permafrost and Climate Change 130

11.5 Greenhouse Gases 132

11.6 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 133

12 Extreme Weather 141
Nicole Gallicchio

12.1 Current Climate and Weather Trends 141

12.2 Classifying Extreme Weather 144

12.3 Extreme Weather Influences 147

12.4 Is Extreme Weather on the Rise? 150

12.5 Weather Pattern Predictions 153

13 Additional Meteorological Impacts 169
Nicole Gallicchio

13.1 Space Weather 169

13.2 Earthquakes and the Effect on Climate Change 171

13.3 Weather and the Effects on the Human Body 172

14 Weather Technology 179
Kevin Anthony Teague

14.1 Tropical Cyclone Technology 179

14.2 Coastal Flooding 186

14.3 Extreme Weather 190

14.4 Enhancements to Radar, Satellite, and Model Output of Supercomputers 198

14.5 Long ]Range Forecasting 203

14.6 Various Planned Advancements 203

15 Global Cooperation 211
Kevin Anthony Teague

15.1 Overall Global Forecasting 211

15.2 Global Networking in Meteorology 213

15.3 Disaster Management 215

15.4 Global Radar and Satellite Cooperation 220

15.5 Global Data ]Processing and Forecasting Systems 221

15.6 Global Response to Climate Change 223

Appendix Figures A H 231

Index 245

Kevin A. Teague and Nicole Gallicchio are the cofounders of Forecasting Consultants LLC, a private weather forecasting and forensic company geared towards a multitude of industries and users. Their business has allowed the authors to grow and expand their knowledge base in all aspects of atmospheric science.