Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms

Although we are seeing more weather and climate extremes, individual extreme events are very diverse and generalization of trends is difficult. For example, mid–latitude and subtropical climate extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts have increased, and could have been caused by processes including arctic amplification, jet stream meandering, and tropical expansion. This volume documents various climate extreme events and associated changes that have been analyzed through diagnostics, modeling, and statistical approaches. The identification of patterns and mechanisms can aid the prediction of future extreme events.

Volume highlights include:

Compilation of processes and mechanisms unique to individual weather and climate extreme events Discussion of climate model performance in terms of simulating high–impact weather and climate extremes Summary of various existing theories, including controversial ones, on how climate extremes will continue to become stronger and more frequent

Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms is a valuable resource for scientists and graduate students in the fields of geophysics, climate physics, natural hazards, and environmental science.

Contributors vii

Preface xi

Acknowledgments  xiii

Part I: Forcings of Climate Extremes

1 The Changing El Nino Southern Oscillation and Associated Climate Extremes
Jin –Yi Yu, Xin Wang, Song Yang, Houk Paek, and Mengyan Chen 3

2 Weather Extremes Linked to Interaction of the Arctic and Midlatitudes
Timo Vihma 39

3 Impact of Aerosols on Regional Changes in Climate Extremes
Jana Sillmann and Jinho Yoon 51

4 Weakened Flow, Persistent Circulation, and Prolonged Weather Extremes in Boreal Summer
Dim Coumou, Kai Kornhuber, Jascha Lehmann, and Vladimir Petoukhov 61

5 Land Processes as the Forcing of Extremes: A Review
Min –Hui Lo, Tzu –Hsien Kuo, Hao ]Wei Wey, Chia –Wei Lan, and Jen –Ping Chen 75

Part II: Processes of Climate Extremes

6 Timing of Anthropogenic Emergence in Climate Extremes
Andrew D. King, Markus G. Donat, Ed Hawkins, and David J. Karoly 95

7 Recent Increases in Extreme Temperature Occurrence over Land
Scott J. Weaver, Arun Kumar, and Mingyue Chen 105

8 Why Future Shifts in Tropical Precipitation Will Likely Be Small: The Location of the Tropical Rain Belt and the Hemispheric Contrast of Energy Input to the Atmosphere
Aaron Donohoe and Aiko Voigt  115

9 Weather ]Climate Interactions and MJO Influences
Paul E. Roundy, Naoko Sakaeda, Kyle MacRitchie, and Lawrence Gloeckler 139

10 Recent Climate Extremes Associated with the West Pacific Warming Mode
Chris Funk and Andrew Hoell 165

11 Connections Between Heat Waves and Circumglobal Teleconnection Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere Summer
Haiyan Teng and Grant Branstator 177

Part III: Regional Climate Extremes

12 North American Drought and Links to Northern Eurasia: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves
Hailan Wang, Siegfried D. Schubert, and Randal D. Koster 197

13 The California Drought: Trends and Impacts
Shih ]Yu (Simon) Wang, Jinho Yoon, Robert R. Gillies, and Huang –Hsiung Hsu 223

14 Observed Trends in US Tornado Frequency
Adam J. Clark 237

15 Mechanisms Explaining Recent Changes in Australian Climate Extremes
Sophie C. Lewis, David J. Karoly, Andrew D. King, Sarah E. Perkins, and Markus G. Donat 249

16 Unraveling East Africa s Climate Paradox
Bradfield Lyon and Nicolas Vigaud 265

17 A Physical Model for Extreme Drought over Southwest Asia
Andrew Hoell, Chris Funk, Mathew Barlow, and Forest Cannon 283

Part IV: Prediction of Climate Extremes

18 Extratropical Precursors of the El Nino Southern Oscillation
Kathy V. Pegion and Christopher Selman 301

19 North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction: Underlying Science and an Evaluation of Statistical Models
Philip J. Klotzbach, Mark A. Saunders, Gerald D. Bell, and Eric S. Blake 315

20 Predicting Subseasonal Precipitation Variations Based on the Madden ]Julian Oscillation
Charles Jones 329

21 Prediction of Short ]Term Climate Extremes with a Multimodel Ensemble
Emily J. Becker 347

22 Toward Predicting US Tornadoes in the Late 21st Century
Adam J. Clark 361

Index  371

S.–Y. Simon Wang, Utah State University, USA

Jin–Ho Yoon, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Republic of Korea

Christopher C. Funk, United States Geological Survey, USA

Robert R. Gillies, Utah State University, USA