Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything

Praise for Endgame "This is an extremely powerful, sobering, well written and highly accessible book. It will demonstrate to you why there are no painless solutions to the mounting debt problems around the world—something that too many people are yet to realize. It will take you on a well–documented journey through the debt super cycle, making stops around the world and at critical junctures. And it is a must–read for anyone wishing to understand the global debt dynamics and ways to protect against its bad consequences. " — Mohamed A. El–Erian , CEO, PIMCO; author of When Markets Collide "No one has thought more creatively about the economy. Mauldin′s weekly newsletter is a must–read and his book is even more important if you want to understand a rapidly changing world." — Newt Gingrich , former Speaker of the House of Representatives "Successful investors explore all possibilities. You should read this book so you can succeed in case the Endgame is our future." — Jim Rogers , author of A Gift to My Children "I read everything John Mauldin writes. He travels the world and shares his financial stories like a good friend sharing a drink. Mauldin is that rarity—a skeptical optimist—who calls ′em straight and rewards his clients and fans." — Rich Karlgaard , Publisher and Columnist, Forbes magazine Greece is a basket case, Ireland on life support, and Japan a bug in search of a windshield. In the times ahead, the global sovereign debt and credit crisis will continue to spread like wildfire. And while no nation, developed or emerging, can escape the pain, the extent of the disaster and how it plays itself out will vary from country to country. Endgame provides the road map ahead. In Endgame , authors Mauldin and Tepper: Reveal why the world economy is in for a protracted period of slow growth, high unemployment, volatile markets, and persistent recessions Review global markets, country–by–country, detailing population trends, government policies, currency outlooks, and more Offer investors practical advice on how to protect their assets through the worst of it and profit from emerging opportunities

Acknowledgments xiii Introduction: Endgame 1 Part One: The End of the Debt Supercycle 11 Chapter 1: The Beginning of the End 15 Chapter 2: Why Greece Matters 31 Chapter 3: Let’s Look at the Rules 45 Chapter 4: The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions 73 Chapter 5: This Time Is Different 91 Chapter 6: The Future of Public Debt: An Unsustainable Path 109 Chapter 7: The Elements of Deflation 133 Chapter 8: Inflation and Hyperinflation 157 Part Two: A World Tour: Who Will Face Endgame First? 175 Chapter 9: The United States: The Mess We Find Ourselves In 181 Chapter 10: The European Periphery: A Modern–Day Gold Standard 215 Chapter 11: Eastern European Problems 233 Chapter 12: Japan: A Bug in Search of a Windshield 247 Chapter 13: The United Kingdom: How to Quietly Inflate Away Your Debt 261 Chapter 14: Australia: Could It Follow in Ireland′s Footsteps? 273 Chapter 15: Unintended Consequences: Loose Monetary Policies and Emerging Markets 283 Conclusion: Investing and Profiting from Endgame 293 Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts 297 Notes 301 About the Authors 309 Index 311

JOHN MAULDIN is a renowned financial expert, a multiple New York Times best–selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. His weekly e–newsletter, Thoughts From The Frontline, was one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance. Today, it is one of the most widely distributed investment newsletters in the world, translated into Chinese, Spanish and Italian. He is regularly seen on TV and in national print media. President of Millennium Wave Investments, he is the father of seven children (five adopted) and lives in Dallas, Texas. JONATHAN TEPPER is the founder and Chief Editor of Variant Perception, a macroeconomic research group catering to hedge funds and high–net–worth individuals.