Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision makers gain insight into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It considers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. The text is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. The fifth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments and research in the field. Includes a new chapter (Chapter 17) on combining scenario planning with decision analysis. Discusses the distinction between good and bad decisions and good and bad outcomes. Extends the discussion of second–order stochastic dominance by introducing a new, simple procedure to help decision makers determine whether stochastic dominance is present. Coverage of the Delphi method in Chapter 13 has been significantly extended and now includes research–based, step–by–step guides on how to apply the method for maximum effectiveness. Discussion on decision framing in Chapter 15 now includes an introduction to prospect theory, which is probably the most well–known theory of how people make decisions when they face risks. Scenario planning has been extended to include a case study detailing how the method was applied in the English National Health Service. The authors also contrast scenario planning with Nassim Taleb’s recently published ideas about ‘antifragility’ in decision making. The book is intended for MBA students and business and management undergraduates who are not specialist mathematicians but it will also appeal to practising managers. The companion website can be found at: www.wileyeurope/college/goodwin

Foreword (Lawrence D. Phillips)      Preface            Chapter 1 Introduction           Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives         Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART Chapter 5 Introduction to probability            Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty          Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams     Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems           Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information        Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities         Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management          Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals         Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems   Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia  Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty       Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis Chapter 18 Alternative decision–support systems and conclusions  Suggested answers to selected questions       Index  

Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. He is Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making . George Wrigh t is a Professor at Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde. He is the Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and anAssociate Editor of both Decision Support Systems and the International Journal of Forecasting.