Fly Fishing the Stock Market: How to Search for, Catch, and Net the Markets Best Trades

Tap into expert stock trader and passionate fly fisher Dr. Stephen Morris′s dynamic trading system that rests on a sound structure of careful analysis and is anchored to a solid foundation.

Morris takes the fundamentals of trading giant Alexander Elder and combines them with his own unique approach to successful trading. Using fly fishing as a metaphor, Morris explores the process that underpins the seasonal matching strategies that are able to exploit any and all market conditions. Throughout the book, Morris illustrates the pyramid structure of success. From time to time, there will be a seesaw between spectacular gains and periods of drawdowns. When supported by a successful trading structure, consistency will win out. When there is consistency, the scales need to be tipped only slightly towards more gains than drawdowns to be successful over the long haul.

Fly Fishing the Stock Market is written for the experienced trader whose trades are already successfully launched from quality trade plans as well as the novice learning the mechanics of entries and exits. If you are looking for a guide that will help you trade with confidence, look no further.

Fly Fishing the Stock Market + Website puts an emphasis on practical application. To that end, this book provides readers with access to a companion website filled with supplementary materials from Fly Fishing the Stock Market Reports and Instructional Videos to automated Catch and Release software allowing you to continue to learn in a hands–on fashion long after closing the book.

Introduction xiii

PART I Fly–Fishing Lessons

CHAPTER 1 Three P s in a Pod 3

Passion 4

Patience 4

Persistence 4

CHAPTER 2 The Tackle Box 7

What Goes Into the Toolbox 8

Bar Charts and Candlesticks Same Markets, Different Angles 9

Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Patterns 13

Trendlines 14

Tops 14

Bottoms 19

False Breakouts 20

Gaps 22

Triangles 26

Volume 26

Computerized Indicators 28

Moving Averages 30

Moving Average Convergence–Divergence 32

The Impulse System 39

Force Index 41

Conclusion 41

CHAPTER 3 Developing Your Technique 45

Analytical Tools and Steps 46

Understanding Entry Orders 49

Conclusion 51

CHAPTER 4 Expectations 53

Why Managed Funds Can Be Dilutional 54

Conclusion 58

PART II Expect the Unexpected

CHAPTER 5 Seeing Is Not Believing 63

Getting Trapped at the Extreme Edge 64

Conclusion 66

CHAPTER 6 The Art of Deception 69

When the Prey Is Exhausted 70

The Deceptions of V–Bottoms 71

The Deceptions of Symmetrical Triangles 73

The Deceptions of Ascending Triangles 74

The Deceptions of Head–and–Shoulders 77

The Deceptions of Breakouts 78

Conclusion 80

PART III Time to Go FISHing

CHAPTER 7 Fishing Seasons/Market Seasons 83

Market Seasons 83

The Influence of Volatility 85

Monitoring Market Season Changes 86

The Weathervane: A Market Timing Monitor 86

The Weather Station 94

Adding the Detail of Price Patterns to Strengthen the Message 96

Conclusion 99

CHAPTER 8 Matching the Hatch 101

Bottom Patterns 103

Pull–Back Patterns 115

Top Patterns 123

Pull–Up Patterns 130

The Symmetrical Triangle: An All–Around General–Purpose Pattern 136

Conclusion 150

CHAPTER 9 Terrestrials and Cut Banks 153

Fundamental Analysis 154

Using Fundamentals to Complement Technical Analysis 159

A Disconnect Between Technicals and Fundamentals 164

Fundamentals on Fire: Momentum Trading 165

Chasing the Big Ones 168

Conclusion 168

CHAPTER 10 Catch and Release 171

Setting the Hook with the Strike Indicator (Entry) 172

The Strike Indicator Entry Steps 174

Snag Management (Stop–Loss) 177

The Drag System (Trade Management/Profit Exit) 178

Examples of Drag Settings 181

Exit to Enter? 184

Conclusion 187

CHAPTER 11 A Word About Bait Fishing 189

Daily Bait– n –Wait 191

Weekly Bait– n –Wait 191

Monthly Bait– n –Wait 192

Conclusion 193

PART IV Fishing Journal

CHAPTER 12 The Trophy Room 197

Neckline Break . . . Up: 9/28/09 198

The January Effect: 1/5/10 199

A Gem in the Junk Pile: 1/1/10 202

Greater Fool Trade: 4/17/10 204

The Perfect Storm: 2/5/10 207

Time of Possession: 8/14/10 210

W–Bottom: 9/11/10 213

Logical Entry and Exit Long ENTR: 9/11/10 216

Conclusion 219

CHAPTER 13 The One That Got Away 221

GLF Trade 222

JTX Trade 225

RMBS Trade 227

Conclusion 229

CHAPTER 14 The Structure of Success 231

The Building Blocks Concept 232

Conclusion 246

CONCLUSION 249

APPENDIX A My Trading Journal 251

Value versus Momentum 252

Analysis 252

Group Strength 253

Trading and Position Sizing in Volatile Markets 253

Trade Management 254

Breakouts 256

Taking Profits 256

The Entry/Exit Review 256

Trading Systems 257

Trading Strategies 257

Learning and Progressing 257

APPENDIX B Table of Indicator Sets 259

References 261

About the Author 263

About the Website 265

Index 267

STEPHEN MORRIS is one of the top performing traders of Alexander Elder′s SpikeTrade Group, generating a gain of 264% in his SpikeTrade equity during the turbulent and confusing markets of 2008 2010. He has been a guest instructor at an Elder–sponsored trading camp and operates a blog, Fly Fishing the Stock Market, which contains his Weathervane (Market Timing Monitor), weekly and daily market forecasts, along with commentary on long– and short–term buy signals and specific market patterns. Dr. Morris has been trading since 1998.