Why Nobody Believes the Numbers: Distinguishing Fact from Fiction in Population Health Management

"This is a must–read for anyone involved in developing policy or making purchase decisions on programs that try to improve health and save money."

Bob Galvin, Chief Executive Officer, Equity Healthcare (Blackstone Group); co–founder, Leapfrog Group; founder, Bridges to Excellence

"Lewis sugarcoats the bitter medicine of math with a generous amount of humor, making this the most painless lesson in outcomes analysis ever published. The lesson: trust your own judgment."

Tom Scully, former Administrator, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; Senior Counsel, Alston & Bird; Partner, Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe

"Lewis has single–handedly created what industry committees have failed to create: a how–to guide for valid outcomes analysis."

Warren Todd, former President and Executive Director, the Care Continuum Alliance

Make better health care decisions by understanding your own data

Behind every health plan and benefits department decision are the numbers that illuminate and drive the cost of coverage. An easy–to–follow guide to population health management, Why Nobody Believes the Numbers helps you interpret these numbers, explains why and how "experts" often make them up, and shows that you don′t need to rely on expensive and as the hilarious examples show, often numerically challenged consultants and vendors to do evaluations. Why Nobody Believes the Numbers gives you the tools to:

Figure out whether you are "moving the needle" or just crediting a program with changes that would have happened anyway Determine whether the ROIs your vendors report are plausible or even arithmetically possible (the majority aren′t) Synthesize all these insights into RFPs and contracts that let vendors know that you weren′t born yesterday

Introduction xiii

Chapter 1 Actuaries Behaving Badly 1

Chapter 2 Plausibility Testing: How to Measure Outcomes Using Ingredients You Already Have in Your Kitchen 35

Chapter 3 Case Studies That Flunk Every Plausibility Test Known to Mankind 53

Chapter 4 Case Studies That Flunk Every Plausibility Test Known to Mankind and Then Some 73

Chapter 5 Case Studies of Where, When, and How Wellness Programs Have Actually Worked 125

Chapter 6 Yes, Virginia, There Is a Savings Clause 141

Chapter 7 Disease Management Programs That Actually Work (Pinch Me) 151

Chapter 8 Contracting/RFP Checklist of Do s and Don ts (Mostly Don ts) 175

Appendix: The Keys to the Numerical Kingdom 193

Author s Note on Sources 195

Notes 197

Glossary 201

About the Author 207

Bibliography and Further Reading 209

Acknowledgments 211

AL LEWIS, President of the Disease Management Purchasing Consortium, is widely credited with inventing disease management and was named "the national leader in analyzing care management outcomes" in the 9th Annual Report on the Disease Management and Wellness Industries. He provides procurement and outcomes consulting to health plans and human resources/benefits departments, and administers the industry certification program in Critical Outcomes Report Analysis. He holds undergraduate and graduate degrees from Harvard.

It s rare that a book about mathematics is funny. And this is not just any math: It s population health analysis. This is the stuff that employers, benefit managers, CFOs and many others want to know: how to figure out if an intervention worked and reduced costs. Employee Benefit News

Do yourself a favor and buy this book.  And, keep it handy the next time you entertain a DM/wellness proposal or examine data submitted to you by your vendor.  You will never read those proposals or reports the same way again Khanna on Health

Digital Health Book of the Year Forbes