The Economic Indicator Handbook: How to Evaluate Economic Trends to Maximize Profits and Minimize Losses

PRAISE FOR THE ECONOMIC INDICATOR HANDBOOK

"Today, central bankers, market participants, and economic analysts are more data–driven than at any other time. Who better than Richard Yamarone to compile a valuable handbook of economic indicators? Drawing on his enormous experience and vast professional interactions, Richard guides us through the large volume of data expectations and releases, both at the macro and sector levels. In the process, he helps us differentiate between noise and signals. This is a vital guide for those seeking to understand economic developments and prospects."
Mohamed El–Erian, Chief Economic Advisor, Allianz

"Richard Yamarone provides the quintessential map of how to navigate the myriad of high–frequency data reports, so vital in this post–crisis era in which historic economic relationships have been dramatically altered. The Handbook does a stellar job in helping us discern which reports are important and which ones are not in today′s ever–digitalized world, identifying the benefits and flaws of each data release, and learning to understand how to interpret the details behind the headlines."
David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist, Gluskin Sheff + Associates

"The Economic Indicator Handbook is an indispensable guide for any investor or trader looking to keep abreast of key economic indicators. Richard Yamarone demystifies economic trends to show that past performance can, and often does, predict future results. No one more capably deciphers and extracts actionable information from underlying trends than Richard Yamarone."
David Blanchflower, Bruce V. Rauner Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College

Acknowledgments ix

About the Author xi

CHAPTER 1 The Daily Blotter 1

CHAPTER 2 The Business Cycle 17

CHAPTER 3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 37

CHAPTER 4 The Labor Market and Employment 69

CHAPTER 5 Retail Sales 105

CHAPTER 6 National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) Small Business Economic Trends 133

CHAPTER 7 Personal Income and Outlays 157

CHAPTER 8 Housing and Construction 183

CHAPTER 9 Manufacturing 207

CHAPTER 10 Prices and Inflation 237

CHAPTER 11 Confidence and Sentiment 263

CHAPTER 12 The Federal Reserve 291

Sources and Additional Reading 321

Index 327

RICHARD YAMARONE is a Bloomberg Senior Economist with more than three decades of experience with monetary and fiscal policy, economic indicators, fixed income, commodities, and general macroeconomic conditions. He is creator of the Bloomberg Orange Book as well as author of Trader′s Guide to Key Economic Indicators. During his career, he has received numerous accolades for his work, including landing on USA Today′s top–ten list of economists and being named "Nostradamus of the Financial Industry" by Bank Advisor for predicting the financial crisis.