Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective

Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective examines recent developments in complexity science that provide a new approach to understanding extreme events. This understanding is critical to the development of strategies for the prediction of natural hazards and mitigation of their adverse consequences. The volume is a comprehensive collection of current developments in the understanding of extreme events. The following critical areas are highlighted: understanding extreme events, natural hazard prediction and development of mitigation strategies, recent developments in complexity science, global change and how it relates to extreme events, and policy sciences and perspective. With its overarching theme, Extreme Events and Natural Hazards will be of interest and relevance to scientists interested in nonlinear geophysics, natural hazards, atmospheric science, hydrology, oceanography, tectonics, and space weather.

Preface
A. Surjalal Sharma, Armin Bunde, Vijay P. Dimri, and Daniel N. Baker vii

Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences: An Overview
A. Surjalal Sharma, Daniel N. Baker, Archana Bhattacharyya, Armin Bunde, Vijay P. Dimri, Harsh K. Gupta, Vijay K. Gupta, Shaun Lovejoy, Ian G. Main, Daniel Schertzer, Hans von Storch, and Nicholas W. Watkins 1

Section I: Solid Earth

Earthquakes: Complexity and Extreme Events
M. R. Yoder, D. L. Turcotte, and J. B. Rundle 17

Patterns of Seismicity Found in the Generalized Vicinity of a Strong Earthquake: Agreement With Common Scenarios of Instability Development
M. V. Rodkin 27

Characterizing Large Events and Scaling in Earthquake Models With Inhomogeneous Damage
Rachele Dominguez, Kristy Tiampo, C. A. Serino, and W. Klein 41

Fractal Dimension and b Value Mapping Before and After the 2004 Megathrust Earthquake in the Andaman–Sumatra Subduction Zone
Sohini Roy, Uma Ghosh, Sugata Hazra, and J. R. Kayal 55

Stress Pulse Migration by Viscoelastic Process for Long–Distance Delayed Triggering of Shocks in Gujarat, India, After the 2001 Mw 7.7 Bhuj Earthquake
B. K. Rastogi, Pallabee Choudhury, Rakesh Dumka, K. M. Sreejith, and T. J. Majumdar 63

Extreme Seismic Events in Models of Lithospheric Block–and–Fault Dynamics
A. T. Ismail–Zadeh, J.–L. Le Mouël, and A. A. Soloviev 75

Section II: Oceans

Investigation of Past and Future Polar Low Frequency in the North Atlantic
Matthias Zahn and Hans von Storch 99

Variability of North Atlantic Hurricanes: Seasonal Versus Individual–Event Features
Álvaro Corral and Antonio Turiel 111

Large–Scale Patterns in Hurricane–Driven Shoreline Change
Eli D. Lazarus, Andrew D. Ashton, and A. Brad Murray 127

Section III: Atmosphere

Precipitation and River Flow: Long–Term Memory and Predictability of Extreme Events
Armin Bunde, Mikhail I. Bogachev, and Sabine Lennartz 139

Extreme Events and Trends in the Indian Summer Monsoon
V. Krishnamurthy 153

Empirical Orthogonal Function Spectra of Extreme Temperature Variability Decoded From Tree Rings of the Western Himalayas
R. K. Tiwari, R. R. Yadav, and K. P. C. Kaladhar Rao 169

On the Estimation of Natural and Anthropogenic Trends in Climate Records
S. Lennartz and A. Bunde 177

Climate Subsystems: Pacemakers of Decadal Climate Variability
Anastasios A. Tsonis 191

Dynamical System Exploration of the Hurst Phenomenon in Simple Climate Models
O. J. Mesa, V. K. Gupta, and P. E. O Connell 209

Low–Frequency Weather and the Emergence of the Climate
S. Lovejoy and D. Schertzer 231

Section IV: Geospace

Extreme Space Weather: Forecasting Behavior of a Nonlinear Dynamical System
D. N. Baker 255

Supermagnetic Storms: Hazard to Society
G. S. Lakhina, S. Alex, B. T. Tsurutani, and W. D. Gonzalez 267

Development of Intermediate–Scale Structure in the Nighttime Equatorial Ionosphere
A. Bhattacharyya 279

Complex Analysis of Polar Auroras for 1996
James Wanliss and Joshua Peterson 293

On Self–Similar and Multifractal Models for the Scaling of Extreme Bursty Fluctuations in Space Plasmas
N. W. Watkins, B. Hnat, and S. C. Chapman 299

Section V: General

Extreme Value and Record Statistics in Heavy–Tailed Processes With Long–Range Memory
Aicko Y. Schumann, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Jörn Davidsen 315

Extreme Event Recurrence Time Distributions and Long Memory
M. S. Santhanam 335

Dealing With Complexity and Extreme Events Using a Bottom–Up, Resource–Based Vulnerability Perspective
Roger A. Pielke Sr., Rob Wilby, Dev Niyogi, Faisal Hossain, Koji Dairuku, Jimmy Adegoke, George Kallos, Timothy Seastedt, and Katharine Suding 345

AGU Category Index 361

Index 363