Forecasting with Judgment

This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.

Spis treści:
Judgment: Its Role and Value for Strategy (S. Makridakis & A. Gaba).
Scenario Planning: Scaffolding Disorganized Ideas about the Future (K. van der Heijden).
Judgmental Forecasting and the Use of Available Information (M. O′Connor & M. Lawrence).
Enhancing Judgmental Sales Forecasting: The Role of Laboratory Research (P. Goodwin).
Heuristics and Biases in Judgmental Forecasting (F. Bolger & N. Harvey).
Financial Forecasting with Judgment (D. Önkal–Atay).
Reasoning with Category Knowledge in Probability Forecasting: Typicality and Perceived Variability Effects (G. Browne & S. Curley).
The Use of Structured Groups to Improve Judgmental Forecasting (G. Rowe).
How Bad Is Human Judgment?
(P. Ayton).
Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research (J. Armstrong & F. Collopy).
Index.