Country Risk Assessment: A Guide to Global Investment Strategy

Country risk is a broad concept which brings together the varied disciplines of economics, finance, geopolitics, sociology and history. Based on a collective 50 years of experience as scholars, managers and advisors in the field of country risk, the authors set out to provide a solid understanding of the concepts and methodologies involved in formulating successful strategies for international risk assessment and management. With a balance between theory and practice, the book assesses the opportunities arising from the growing integration of international finance markets and presents and analyses the various sources of country risk.

It provides an in–depth coverage of information sources and country risk service providers, and explains techniques for assessing and forecasting country financial crises. It includes a comprehensive review of all existing methods including the techniques of the cutting–edge market–based approaches such as:

The book concludes with a management tool kit based on practical examples, all of which will be of interest to managers and analysts in investment banks and in corporate institutions involved in international investment, as well as to students of international finance and business.

 

Preface.

Acknowledgments.

Foreword by Campbell R. Harvey

1 Introduction.

2 An Overview of Country Risk .

3 The Economic and Financial Foundations of Country Risk Assessment .

4 Country Risk Assessment Methodologies: The Qualitative, Structural Approach to Country Risk.

5 Assessment Methodologies: Ratings.

6 Econometric and Mathematical Methods.

7 Risk Models.

8 International Portfolio Investment Analysis.

9 Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries: An Historical Perspective.

10 Country Risk and Risk Mitigation Instruments.

11 Country Risk Assessment: A Matter of Information and Intelligence Gathering.

Glossary.

Index

MICHEL HENRY BOUCHET is Professor of Finance at CERAM–Sophia Antipolis (France), Scientific Director of the MSc in International Finance, and Head of the Chair ′Global Finance′. He is also Managing Director of DEFI/Developing Finance, Paris. After an international banking career at BNP, the World Bank and the Washington–based Institute of International Finance, Dr. Bouchet was founder and CEO of Owen Stanley Financial, a specialized advisory firm dealing with debt restructuring strategy for country governments. Dr. Bouchet graduated in Economics from the University of Paris and IEP–Paris. He also holds an M.A. and a Ph.D from USC (Columbia–USA).

EPHRAÏM CLARK is Professor of Finance at Middlesex University, London, and Visiting Professor at ESC Lille, France, with extensive teaching experience in Europe and the USA. He is Founding Editor of the European Journal of Finance, Co–editor of Treasury Affairs, and Associate Editor of the International Journal of Finance. Professor Clark is the author of eight books and over 50 articles in academic and professional journals in the field of international risk management, and he also has extensive experience in private business and as a consultant.

BERTRAND GROSLAMBERT after working in Africa as Financial Controller with the French oil group, Total, Dr. Groslambert joined Paris–based FP Consult (now part of Fortis Group), an emerging market investment management company with a US$250 million portfolio. He was equity fund manager specializing in Latin American stock markets. Dr. Groslambert teaches International Finance Strategy and International Risk Management at CERAM. A graduate himself from CERAM, he holds a Doctorate in Economics from Aix–Marseille University, and his areas of expertise include emerging markets and international economics.