20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk

Learn to apply the fundamental aspects of risk—regardless of the situation
We′d all like to eliminate risk from our decision–making, but unfortunately this goal is unachievable. No single across–the–board solution holds the power to tackle all of the surprises life throws at us. As much as we try to avoid them, unfavorable outcomes will inevitably occur. . . sometimes. Yet there are things you can do to help stack the deck in your favor. You don′t have to be a statistician or mathematician to become an expert in managing the future′s uncertainty. 20% Chance of Rain enables the reader to form a robust understanding of risk that can be applied to decision–making by:

Teaching the fundamental concepts of risk through the extensive use of practical situations to help the reader apply what is learned to a wide variety of situations
Providing actual illustrations of risk analysis, risk assessment, and risk management, complementing the rigorous mathematics taught in most risk courses
Communicating complex risk concepts in a simple, clear, and interesting manner using real–life examples and problems
Including case studies, from NASA and other industries, providing the basis for additional discussions and allowing the reader to see actual applications of risk–based decision–making
From individuals to businesses to government agencies, risk is the common denominator. Successful strategies for managing the future′s uncertainty or risk may seem simple and straightforward on the surface, yet they can be extremely complex and subtle. Understanding the best ways to employ these multi–faceted tactics is critical in the face of the ups and downs that loom behind every choice we make. Life is truly a series of choices and 20% Chance of Rain can help you manage the future′s uncertainty in today′s dynamic, complex, and shrinking world.


Spis treści:
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xi
1. Risk: Life’s Question Mark 1
2. Measurement: The Alchemist’s Base 15
3. Statistics: Numbers Looking for an Argument 41
4. The Value of Life and Limb, Statistically Speaking 69
5. The Evolution of Risk 93
6. Frequency and Severity: Weighing the Risk 107
7. What’s in a Risk? Perception Creates Risk Reality 128
8. Risk, Regulation, and Reason 151
9. Earth, Air, and Water: The Not–So–Bare Essentials 176
10. Food . . . for Thought 210
11. Flying: The Not–So–Wild Blue Yonder 249
12. Risk on the Roads 278
13. An Incomplete List of Life’s Risks 315
Index 337

Nota biograficzna:

Richard B. Jones has spent the past thirty years applying risk analysis and management techniques to industrial and business problems. He is the author of many articles, has presented at numerous conferences, and is the author of two previous books on risk management.

Okładka tylna:

Learn to apply the fundamental aspects of risk—regardless of the situation
We′d all like to eliminate risk from our decision–making, but unfortunately this goal is unachievable. No single across–the–board solution holds the power to tackle all of the surprises life throws at us. As much as we try to avoid them, unfavorable outcomes will inevitably occur. . . sometimes. Yet there are things you can do to help stack the deck in your favor. You don′t have to be a statistician or mathematician to become an expert in managing the future′s uncertainty. 20% Chance of Rain enables the reader to form a robust understanding of risk that can be applied to decision–making by:

Teaching the fundamental concepts of risk through the ex tensive use of practical situations to help the reader apply what is learned to a wide variety of situations
Providing actual illustrations of risk analysis, risk assessment, and risk management, complementing the rigorous mathematics taught in most risk courses
Communicating complex risk concepts in a simple, clear, and interesting manner using real–life examples and problems
Including case studies, from NASA and other industries, providing the basis for additional discussions and allowing the reader to see actual applications of risk–based decision–making
From individuals to businesses to government agencies, risk is the common denominator. Successful strategies for managing the future′s uncertainty or risk may seem simple and straightforward on the surface, yet they can be extremely complex and subtle. Understanding the best ways to employ these multi–faceted tactics is critical in the face of the ups and downs that loom behind every choice we make. Life is truly a series of choices and 20% Chance of Rain can help you manage the future′s uncertainty in today′s dynamic, complex, and shrinking world.