The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions

Praise for The Business Forecasting Deal
Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions
"Mike Gilliland′s new book is a breath of fresh air. It′s simple, straightforward, easy to read, insightful—and loaded with solid, practical advice on how to improve the forecasting process in your company."—From the Foreword by Tom Wallace
"Into a market awash in forecasting texts, each promising to be the panacea for supply chain inefficiencies and sales shortfalls, Mike Gilliland′s The Business Forecasting Deal is a refreshingly objective assessment of the real costs and benefits of forecast process improvement. Above all, his book cuts to what should be at the heart of all our efforts: are the expenditures in time and money we are making in forecast improvement truly resulting in incremental profitability?"—Jonathon Karelse, National Marketing Manager, Yokohama Tire (Canada) Inc.
"A great book, unique as well. Mike Gilliland is the first person with a mission to bring ′worst practices′ into the open so that forecasters can see what they are doing wrong and the price they are paying for it. Nothing can happen unless they recognize their problems, for which Mike has made a tremendous contribution."—Dr. Chaman Jain, St. John′s University; Editor, Journal of Business Forecasting
"Mike Gilliland has captured the key issues in this book, and his work, particularly on volatility and Forecast Value Added, is to be applauded."—Martin Joseph, Managing Director, Rivershill Consulting Ltd.
"I have used Mike Gilliland′s Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis for the past year, and it has made a big difference in understanding what steps in our forecasting process are worthwhile and what steps need to be improved or eliminated. His advice on the proper way to present FVA to upper management has helped gain the confidence of the division in this analysis." —Dave Wehling, Man ager, Marketing Requirements, International Division, The Toro Company
"Mike Gilliland provides a unique perspective on the forecasting discipline. He presents sound quantitative lessons paired with pragmatic, realistic, and effective methodologies for applying his techniques. This book is an excellent and perhaps mandatory addition to the repertoire of demand managers and supply chain management professionals alike."—Emily Rodriguez, Supply Chain Program Manager, Intel Corporation

Spis treści:
Prologue
CHAPTER 1 Fundamental Issues in Business Forecasting.
The Problem of Induction.
The Realities of Business Forecasting.
The Contest.
What Is Demand?
Constrained Forecast.
Demand Volatility.
Inherent Volatility and Artificial Volatility.
Evils of Volatility.
Evaluating Forecast Performance.
Embarking on Improvement.
Notes.
CHAPTER 2 Worst Practices in Business Forecasting:  Part 1.
Worst Practices in the Mechanics of Forecasting.
Model “Over–fitting” and “Pick–Best” Selection.
Confusing Model Fit with Forecast Accuracy.
Accuracy Expectations and Performance Goals.
Failure to Use a Naïve Model or Assess Forecast Value Added.
Forecasting Hierarchies.
Outlier Handling.
Notes.
CHAPTER 3 Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 2.
Worst Practices in the Process and Practices of Forecasting.
Politics of Forecasting.
Blaming the Forecast.
Adding Variation to Demand.
Evangelical Forecasting.
Over–Investing in the Forecasting Function.
Forecasting Performance Measurement and Reporting.
Forecasting Software Selection.
Editorial Comment on Forecasting Practices.
Notes.
CHAPTER 4 Forecast Value Added Analysis.
What Is Forecast Value Added?
The Naïve Forecast.
Why Is FVA Important?
FVA Analysis: Step–by–Step.
Further Application of FVA Ana lysis.
Case Studies.
Summary: The Lean Approach to Forecasting.
Notes.
CHAPTER 5 Forecasting Without History.
Typical New Product Forecasting Situations.
New Product Forecasting by Structured Analogy.
Organizational Realignment4.
Summary.
Notes.
CHAPTER 6 Alternative Approaches to the Problems of Business Forecasting.
Statistical Approach.
Collaborative Approach.
Supply Chain Engineering Approach.
Pruning Approach.
Summary.
Notes.
CHAPTER 7 Implementing a Forecasting Solution.
Why Do Forecasting Implementations Fail?
Pre–Project Assessment.
Requesting Information or Proposals.
Evaluating Software Vendors.
Warning Signs of Failure.
Notes.
CHAPTER 8 Practical First Steps.
Step 1: Recognize the Volatility versus Accuracy Relationship.
Step 2: Determine Inherent and Artificial Volatility.
Step 3: Understand What Accuracy Is Reasonable to Expect.
Step 4: Use Forecast Value Added Analysis to Eliminate Wasted Efforts.
Step 5: Utilize Meaningful Performance Metrics and Reporting.
Step 6: Eliminate Worst Practices.
Step 7: Consult Forecasting Resources.
Notes.
CHAPTER 9 What Management Must Know About Forecasting.
Aphorism 1: Forecasting Is a Huge Waste of Management Time.
Aphorism 2: Accuracy Is Determined More by the Nature of the Behavior Being Forecast than by the Specific Method Being Used to Forecast It.
Aphorism 3: Organizational Policies and Politics Can Have a Significant Impact on Forecasting Effectiveness.
Aphorism 4: You May Not Control the Accuracy Achieved, but You Can Control. the Process Used and the Resources You Invest.
Aphorism 5: The Surest Way to Get a Better Forecast Is to Make the Demand Forecastable.
Aphorism 6: Minimize the Organization’s Reliance on Forecasting.
Aphorism 7: Before Investing in a New System or Process, Put It to the Test.
Notes.
Epilogue.
Glossary.< br>Index.

Nota biograficzna:

MICHAEL GILLILAND is Product Marketing Manager at SAS Institute and has worked in consu–mer products forecasting for more than twenty years. Prior to joining SAS in 2004, Mike held forecasting management positions in the food, electronics, and apparel industries and served as a consultant. He is a frequent speaker at industry events, has published articles in Supply Chain Management Review, Journal of Business Forecasting, Foresight, and APICS magazine, and was a columnist on "Worst Practices in Business Forecasting" for Supply Chain Forecasting Digest. Mike holds a BA in philosophy from Michigan State University, and master′s degrees in philosophy and mathematical sciences from Johns Hopkins University. Follow his blog, The Business Forecasting Deal, at blogs.sas.com/forecasting.

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Praise for The Business Forecasting Deal
Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions
"Mike Gilliland′s new book is a breath of fresh air. It′s simple, straightforward, easy to read, insightful—and loaded with solid, practical advice on how to improve the forecasting process in your company."—From the Foreword by Tom Wallace
"Into a market awash in forecasting texts, each promising to be the panacea for supply chain inefficiencies and sales shortfalls, Mike Gilliland′s The Business Forecasting Deal is a refreshingly objective assessment of the real costs and benefits of forecast process improvement. Above all, his book cuts to what should be at the heart of all our efforts: are the expenditures in time and money we are making in forecast improvement truly resulting in incremental profitability?"—Jonathon Karelse, National Marketing Manager, Yokohama Tire (Canada) Inc.
"A great book, unique as well. Mike Gilliland is the first person with a mission to bring ′worst practices′ into the open so that forecast ers can see what they are doing wrong and the price they are paying for it. Nothing can happen unless they recognize their problems, for which Mike has made a tremendous contribution."—Dr. Chaman Jain, St. John′s University; Editor, Journal of Business Forecasting
"Mike Gilliland has captured the key issues in this book, and his work, particularly on volatility and Forecast Value Added, is to be applauded."—Martin Joseph, Managing Director, Rivershill Consulting Ltd.
"I have used Mike Gilliland′s Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis for the past year, and it has made a big difference in understanding what steps in our forecasting process are worthwhile and what steps need to be improved or eliminated. His advice on the proper way to present FVA to upper management has helped gain the confidence of the division in this analysis." —Dave Wehling, Manager, Marketing Requirements, International Division, The Toro Company
"Mike Gilliland provides a unique perspective on the forecasting discipline. He presents sound quantitative lessons paired with pragmatic, realistic, and effective methodologies for applying his techniques. This book is an excellent and perhaps mandatory addition to the repertoire of demand managers and supply chain management professionals alike."—Emily Rodriguez, Supply Chain Program Manager, Intel Corporation