Scenarios for Success: Turning Insights in to Action

How can we look over the horizon of the known and commit ourselves to new courses of action? How do we bring together knowledge and creativity to make decisions that have far reaching impact for success, and even survival? How can we put the forces shaping our world into play with emerging possibilities and come up with a unique entrepreneurial insight? Scenario thinking has stood the test of time as a way to tackle these questions in every domain from long–range global public policy to the business plan of a start–up.

In 2005 the Oxford Futures Forum brought together 70 leading futures practitioners to share their experience of how to use scenarios for organizational success: how to develop deep insight into the drivers of change, and how to turn that insight into effective action. The Forum revealed a vibrant practice that is developing many new approaches to extend scenario approaches to cope with the increasing demands for rapid response to a complex world. Where many management methods attempt to reduce decisions to some standardized process to deliver fixed results in fixed times, scenario thinking is still rooted in making space for the essential magic of original insight to happen.

These contributions, never published before, bring the newest thinking in the field of scenarios to a wider audience. Critical reflection on many case studies drawn from first hand experience has produced an invaluable resource for organizations aiming to achieve leadership in their strategic thinking and action.

LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS.

PREFACE.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.

OVERVIEW.

PART I. ORIGINS: NAVIGATING WITH INVISIBLE ISLANDS.

Introduction by Bill Sharpe.

1 Conversations with Peter Schwartz and Napier Collyns (Bill Sharpe). 

2 Professional Dreamers: The Future in the Past of Scenario Planning (Cynthia Selin).

PART II. SCENARIOS IN THE WORLD OF BUSINESS.

3 Scenarios and Innovation (Jan Verloop).

4 Scenarios to Develop Strategic Options: A New Interactive Role for Scenarios in Strategy (Rafael Ramírez and Kees van der Heijden).

5 Deepening Futures with System Structure (Tony Hodgson and Bill Sharpe).

6 From Signals to Decisions (Alexander Fink, Philip Hadridge and Gill Ringland).

7 When Strangers Meet: Scenarios and the Legal Profession (Karim Medjad and Rafael Ramirez).

8 The Power of Narrative (Lennart Nordfors).

PART III. SCENARIOS IN THE WORLD OF MANAGEMENT. 

9 Viewing Futures Network: Collaborative Learning and Innovation at Rabobank (Paul de Ruijter).

10 Facilitating Scenario Development Process: Some Lessons for Facilitators (Ronald Bradfield).

11 Appreciating the Future (Tony Hodgson).

12 Building a Comprehensive Strategic Future Management System: A Future Map Approach (Don Heathfield).

13 Acting on the Future (Andrew Curry).

14 Backwards to the Future: Scenarios as Routines for Organizational Health (James Tansey).

CONCLUDING REMARKS.

REFERENCES.

INDEX.

Bill Sharpe is an independent researcher in science, technology and society. He was a research director at Hewlett Packard Laboratories where he led research into everyday applications of digital technology. He introduced scenario methods to HP for long–range research and business management, and pioneered the use of scenario methods for supporting business innovation. In 1999 he co–founded an innovation and consulting company, The Appliance Studio, and now specializes in long range technology studies for business strategy and public policy foresight. He has worked extensively for the UK government s Foresight Programme in areas such as Cognitive Systems, Cybertrust, and Intelligent Infrastructure. With a background in computing and psychology, he is particularly interested in drawing on leading edge research in cognition and systems thinking to find new ways of tackling complex problems. He works independently and as an associate with several organizations in the futures field.

Kees van der Heijden is an Associate Fellow of Templeton College, University of Oxford, and a Visiting Professor at the Netherlands Business School, Nijenrode University. He is also Emeritus Professor of the University of Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, Glasgow, where he has taught General and Strategic Management since 1990. In addition, he is a co–founder of the Global Business Network. Before joining Strathclyde, he was in charge of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, as head of the Group s Business Environment Division. This involved advising top management on strategy, as well as development of the process of scenario planning in which Shell has taken a worldwide leading role.

He specializes in scenario planning, strategic change and institutional strategic management processes, and has consulted widely in these areas.

"[The book] shows just how many new aspects there are to be seen."  ( Credit Control Journal, Volume 28 #4)