LNG Risk Based Safety: Modeling and Consequence Analysis

The expert, all–inclusive guide on LNG risk based safety

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is the condensed form of natural gasachieved by cryogenic chilling. This process reduces gas to aliquid 600 times smaller in volume than it is in its originalstate, making it suitable for economical global transportation. LNGhas been traded internationally and used with a good safety recordsince the 1960s. However, with some accidents occurring with thestorage and liquefaction of LNG, a good understanding of itsmechanisms, and its potential ramifications to facilities and tothe nearby public, is becoming critically important. With anunbiased eye, this book leans on the expertise of its authors andLNG professionals worldwide to examine these serious safety issues,while addressing many false assumptions surrounding this volatileenergy source.

LNG Risk Based Safety:

Summarizes the findings of the Governmental AccountabilityOffice′s (GAO) survey of nineteen LNG experts from across NorthAmerica and Europe

Reviews the history of LNG technology developments

Systematically reviews the various consequences from LNGreleases discharge, evaporation, dispersion, fire, and otherimpacts, and identifies best current approaches to model possibleconsequence zones

Includes discussion of case studies and LNG–related accidentsover the past fifty years

Covering every aspect of this controversial topic, LNG RiskBased Safety informs the reader with firm conclusions based onhighly credible investigation, and offers practical recommendationsthat researchers and developers can apply to reduce hazards andextend LNG technology.

Preface.

1 LNG Properties and Overview of Hazards.

1.1 LNG Properties.

1.2 Hazards of LNG with Respect to Public Risk.

1.3 Risk Analysis Requires Adequate Modeling.

1.4 Flammability.

1.5 Regulations in Siting Onshore LNG Import Terminals.

1.6 Regulation for Siting Offshore LNG Import Terminals.

1.7 Controversial Claims of LNG Opponents.

2 LNG Incidents and Marine History.

2.1 LNG Ship Design History.

2.2 Designs and Issues First Commercial LNG Ships.

2.3 LNG Trade History.

2.4 LNG Accident History.

2.5 Summary of LNG History and Relevant TechnicalDevelopments.

3 Current LNG Carriers.

3.1 Design Requirements.

3.2 Membrane Tanks.

3.3 Moss Spheres.

4 Risk Analysis and Risk Reduction.

4.1 Background.

4.2 Risk Analysis Process.

4.3 Frequency: Data Sources and Analysis.

4.4 Frequency: Predictive Methods.

4.5 Consequence Modeling.

4.6 Ignition Probability.

4.7 Risk Results.

4.8 Special Issues Terrorism.

4.9 Risk Reduction and Mitigation Measures for LNG.

5 LNG Discharge on Water.

5.1 Type 1 Above Water Breaches at Sea.

5.2 Type 2 At Waterline Breaches at Sea.

5.3 Type 3 Below Waterline Breaches at Sea.

5.4 Discharges from Ship′s Pipework.

5.5 Cascading Failures at Sea.

5.6 Initial Discharge Rate.

5.7 Time–Dependent Discharge (Blowdown).

5.8 Vacuum Breaking and Glug–Glug Effects.

6 Risk Analysis for Onshore Terminals and Transport.

6.1 Typical Basis for LNG Receiving Terminal.

6.2 Features of LNG Receiving Terminals.

6.3 Standards for Receiving Terminal Design.

6.4 U.S. Guidelines and Regulations for Receiving Terminals.

6.5 European Regulations for LNG Receiving Terminals.

6.6 Empirical Formula for Required Land Area of Terminal.

6.7 Leak in Loading Arm or in Storage Tank.

6.8 Rollover.

6.9 LNG Land Transport Risk.

6.10 Offshore LNG Terminals.

7 LNG Pool Modeling.

7.1 Flashing and Droplet Evaporation in Jet Flow.

7.2 Pool Spread and Evaporation Modeling.

7.3 Rapid Phase Transition Explosions.

7.4 Aerosol Drop Size.

7.5 Heat Balance Terms to LNG Pool.

7.6 Nomenclature.

8 Vapor Cloud Dispersion Modeling.

8.1 Atmospheric Transport Processes.

8.2 Model Types.

8.3 LNG Dispersion Test Series.

8.4 Factors Affecting Plume Length.

8.5 Effect of Wind, Currents, and Waves on LNG Plume.

8.6 Comparison of Dispersion Model Predictions.

8.7 Descriptions of Dispersion Test Series.

8.8 Vapor Intrusion Indoors.

8.9 Theoretical Basis for Suppression of Turbulence.

9 LNG Pool Fire Modeling.

9.1 Types of Fires from LNG Facilities.

9.2 The Challenge for Pool Fire Modeling.

9.3 Pool Fire Characteristics.

9.4 Summary of LNG Fire Experiments.

9.5 Burning Rate Data and Correlations From Fire Tests.

9.6 Point Source Fire Model.

9.7 Solid Flame Models: Flame Length Correlations.

9.8 Flame Tilt Correlations.

9.9 Flame Drag Near Pools.

9.10 Sep Correlations and Smoke Shielding.

9.11 Atmospheric Transmissivity.

9.12 Trench Fires.

9.13 View Factors.

9.14 CFD Modeling.

9.15 Comparison of Model Predictions.

9.16 Fire Engulfment of LNG Carrier.

10 Other LNG Hazards.

10.1 Fire and Explosion Scenarios.

10.2 Jet Fires.

10.3 Flash Fires.

10.4 BLEVEs, Fireballs.

10.5 LNG Vapor Cloud Explosions.

10.6 Asphyxiation and Cryogenic Hazard from LNG Spills.

11 Fire Effects.

11.1 Fire Radiation Effects on Individuals.

11.2 Effects of Thermal Radiation on Property.

12 Research Needs.

12.1 Uncertainties.

12.2 Recommendations of GAO Survey.

12.3 LNG Model Evaluation Protocols (MEPs).

12.4 Special Topics.

12.5 Conclusions.

References.

Index.

JOHN L. WOODWARD, PhD, is Senior Principal Consultant in theProcess Safety Division of Baker Engineering and Risk Consultants,Inc. in San Antonio, Texas. He has been actively involved inconsequence modeling for both the DNV PHAST and BakerRisk SafeSitecodes for many years. He was invited by the GAO (GovernmentAccountability Office) as part of a team of LNG experts to reviewLNG safety issues.

ROBIN M. PITBLADO, PhD, is Director for SHE RiskManagement for Det Norske Veritas and is based in Houston, Texas.He has been active in consequence modeling, risk assessment andmajor accident investigation for over thirty years and was also amember of the GAO Panel of LNG Experts.