Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and applications of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. This reference provides an accessible yet rigorous introduction to the scientific principles and "sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions, such as across today’s complex multi-sourced power generation from renewables and traditional sources.

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects and emerging opportunities of this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.

Contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications, provide A one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary fieldOffers a synthesis of state of S2S science, through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for use in their own decision settingIncludes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, which powerfully illustrate the interdisciplinary linkages

Part I: Setting the scene 1. Introduction: Why S2S? 2. Weather forecasting: What sets the forecast horizon? 3. Weather within Climate: Sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily rainfall characteristics 4. Identifying wave processes associated with predictability across time scales: An empirical normal mode approach

Part II: Sources of S2S Predictability 5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation 6. Extratropical sub-seasonal–to–seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: The dynamical systems view 7. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections 8. Land surface processes relevant to S2S prediction 9. Midlatitude Meso-scale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction 10. The role of sea ice in subseasonal predictability 11. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere

Part III: S2S Modeling and Forecasting 12. Forecast system design, configuration, complexity 13. Ensemble generation: the TIGGE and S2S ensembles 14. GCMs with Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulation 15. Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination 16. Forecast verification for S2S time scales

Part IV: S2S Applications 17. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes 18. Pilot experiences in using seamless forecasts for early action: Ready-Set-Go approach in the Red Cross 19. Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user communities 20. Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases 21. Lessons learned in 25 years informing sectoral decisions with probabilistic climate forecasts 22. Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales